A forecast for this October 23 in Budapest

The anniversary of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution is approaching again, and this October 23rd will also mark the first anniversary of the violent clash between anti-government protesters and police in Budapest during which hundreds of civilians and officers were injured. Despite fears of a violent repeat, there are a number of state-organized programs planned for Tuesday, a list of which can be read (in Hungarian) here. Mayor Gábor Demszky expects that police will be successful in keeping order.

What Can be Expected

On October 17, police and national security office leaders announced that they expected "extremist" actions to take place in Budapest on October 23. Officials said that "neo-fascist" groups and football hooligans are likely to disrupt commemorations with the aim of attracting media attention. This ran counter to a statements made by national security head György Szilvásy two weeks ago, in which he claimed that there would not be any riots on this year's Oct. 23 holiday.

Earlier, National Police Chief József Bencze said that new methods had been worked out for managing mass events based on analyses of last fall's incidents, adding that these methods had been followed on this year's March 15 holiday - also a flash point - and would be used again on October 23. He said that a total of 103 demonstrations were planned for Budapest between October 21 and 23, and of these, only the ones planned to be held in front of government buildings had been forbidden. (These would have been organized by the rightist group Magyar Nemzeti Bizottság.)

Bencze stressed that, unlike a year ago, rubber bullets will not be used by police for dispersing any crowds that form on Tuesday, though the law allow them to be used until January 1. He also said that officers currently under procedures for misconduct during last year's riots will not be taking part in security operations this year. In addition, officers on duty will wear three identification tags on their helmet, chest and arm.

In line with Hungarian law, participants in any spontaneous, "unannounced" demonstrations will be dispersed. This despite a recent ruling by the European Court of Human Rights that dispersing a demonstration on the grounds that it had not been previously "announced" seriously breaches the right to freedom of assembly.

Károly Papp, commander of Police Security Service (Rebisz), said that if needed, tear gas grenades, water canons, batons, dogs and horses will be used.

In a recent interview, Budapest Police Chief Gábor Tóth said that his work had not been influenced by politics, and he is sure it will not be influenced by politics on Tuesday either. He stressed that he would take responsibility for all of his actions.

Planned Events and Attractions

While last month a company called Masztodon Kft was announced as the organizer of this year's October 23 commemorations, a detailed list of events to be managed by the firm had not been made public until a few days ago. Last year, the times and details of such events were made public on the government portal magyarorszag.hu in September. The company won a public procurement tender worth Ft 224 million (nearly €900,000) for the organization of commemorations in Budapest between October 20 and November 4. Some of these events likely will be open to a small circle of VIP guests only, right-leaning Magyar Nemzet observed.

State-organized events will include a speech by Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány at the Opera House on the evening of October 22 - which will lead to closure of surrounding streets to auto and pedestrian traffic - and commemorations at Kossuth Lajos tér and Vértanúk tere (District V) on the morning of October 23 and at 56-osok tere (district XIV) on the afternoon of the same day.

Hungary's main opposition party Fidesz will hold a rally at Astoria in downtown Pest at 3 p.m. on October 23, at which party chairman Viktor Orbán will make a speech. Organizers are asking those who attend to bring a candle. A year ago, Fidesz held a rally at the same location, after which several participants were caught up in nearby riots. After Tuesday's Fidesz rally, participants and organizers will proceed to the House of Terror museum along the Károly körút - Deák Ferenc tér - Bajcsy-Zsilinszky út route.

One attraction that will be open to everybody is a 600-meter-long art installation entitled "Future Image '56" ("Jövő Kép '56") that will be exhibited on the lower embankment road between Halász utca and Margaret Bridge (Margit híd) on the Buda side of the Danube between October 21 and 23. A giant, black-and-white panorama photo of Budapest was turned by young artists into an image of what they think the city will look like in 2056.

Traffic guide

Streets surrounding the Opera House and Andrássy út between Oktogon and Bajcsy-Zsilinszky út will be closed to traffic from 5 p.m. on Monday.

Kossuth Lajos tér and Vértanúk tere will be closed between 7 a.m. and noon on Tuesday, while 56-osok tere and part of Dózsa György út from 2 p.m. until the evening.

Participants from Tuesday's Fidesz rally are expected to occupy Rákóczi út running from Astoria to Blaha Lujza tér, forcing the road to be closed to traffic from the Elisabeth Bridge (Erzsébet híd). The roads along which the procession will walk after the rally will also be closed in the afternoon.

Parking regulations will also change due to the above events, about which motorists will be informed by signs.

Police ask motorists to avoid downtown Budapest on Monday and Tuesday and instead use the Hungária ring road, Árpád Bridge and Lágymányosi Bridge.

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